Winter 2009-2010 Forecast versus Reality

At left is the actual departure from normal temperatures (by climatological district) versus NOAA’s forecast (right) for the winter.  The forecast did not work out well.  Click to enlarge.

The British Met Office’s forecast for the winter was so bad it has disappeared from its web site and they appear to be discontinuing their seasonal forecasts. Those forecasts have been spectacularly bad in the last few years.

Exit question: If we cannot forecast the average weather (climate) for 90 days with consistent accuracy, why do we believe we an forecast the weather 90 years into the future? I believe the answer is self-evident.

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