Here is an excellent interview with a well-respected atmospheric scientist. Please note the comments with regard to the accuracy of global climate models (GCMs). In the comments section, one questioner asks why we don’t receive short term (seasonal) forecasts from the GCMs. I can answer that one: Because they are horribly inaccurate. That is the dirty secret of the climate models. They can’t make accurate forecasts for 90 days but we are supposed to believe their forecasts for 90 years.