If you read the comments in the posting below, “Tornado Threat Today,” you see the comment,
Elaine is correct (see below).
Actually, a 15% chance of a tornado in these outlooks is a very significant risk. Lets take a look at the tornado probabilities attached to the 8am severe weather outlooks on two other days this season:
St. Louis Good Friday Tornado April 22nd
|North St. Louis County was in the 5% area without hatching.
The Good Friday tornado was F-4 intensity.
Joplin Tornado May 22nd
|Joplin was in the 10% area with “hatching” (potential for F-2 or greater tornadoes)|
So, when you find yourself in a 10% or 15% (or higher) tornado forecast it is something to take seriously.
Since posting this morning, a new outlook has been released by the Storm Prediction Center and these are the latest probabilities for later this afternoon and tonight.
|Relative probabilities of a tornado for Sunday, June 26, 2011, issued 11:30am.|
You can keep track of current watches and warning with AccuWeather here.