At Saturday’s American Weather Conference, the director of the National Hurricane Center, Bill Read, had two points in his presentation I wish to share with Meteorological Musings readers.
- In the middle 1970′s the average error in a hurricane forecast at 72 hours was 410 miles. In 2010, it was 130 miles. That is a remarkable improvement.
- In the part of the United States with the highest frequency for fires, there is a 1 in 500 chance of a home fire. In other areas, the probability of a fire is less. Across the U.S. as a whole, the chance of a home being damaged in a flood is 1 in 100. Yet, mortgagers require fire insurance. They do not require flood insurance if the statistical probability of a flood at your location is one in 125. Why?