For much of 2011, the upper atmospheric weather pattern has looked like this:
A high pressure center covering the central and western United States.
Since yesterday both the European (shown here) and U.S. extended range computer models shows a low coming into the central United States:
|ten day ECMWF model valid Friday, October 7|
The low, centered near Reno, is what will cause the early start of the rainy season in California and will bring rain to much of the West. There is a chance — just a chance — that some desperately needed rain may occur from Texas to Kansas.
However, the U.S. extended-range model (from 10 to 15 days) shows the western system rapidly weakening and moving farther north.
Given 2012 winter wheat planting that is occurring now, these model forecasts have the potential to move markets, so I decided to comment on them even though, at this point, it is only educated speculation as to whether significant rain may fall in the winter wheat belt.