My mentor, Don Whitman, a forecaster with the National Weather Service, taught me the importance of getting the forecast of the first snow of the season correct. As Don used to say, “If you get the first one wrong, people remember it all winter.”
The challenge is that temperatures are often marginal during the first snow of the season so it has always been especially difficult to get the first snow of the season right.
So, it is amazing how good the forecasts were of the just-ended record snow storm in the East.
AccuWeather started talking about it Thursday and I posted about the pending storm on this blog Friday at 8:57am — about 22 hours before the heaviest snow began falling.
|Hat tip: AccuWeather’s Jesse Ferrell; click to enlarge
Later Friday, I (along with others) posted: “widespread power failures are likely.” I also posted, “Just in case, here is my Airline Survival Guide
.” Rule #1 in the Guide is to avoid the problem by not flying into major winter storms.
The point of all of this is to point out the remarkable improvement in forecasts of all types of storms. Meteorology has advanced to the point that storm warnings should be taken seriously and acted upon.
Addition: Here is a satellite image of snow cover this morning:
And, customers of Connecticut Power are told to prepare for a week without power. This will be worse than recent Hurricane Irene.