Many have read Dr. Richard Muller’s op-ed in Friday’s Wall Street Journal that discusses the Berkeley (BEST) project’s re-analysis of land temperatures. It appears to find that temperatures are rising more quickly than originally thought for “the last 50 years.”
Please let me state some points of agreement with Dr. Muller’s piece:
- Hurricane frequency is not increasing.
- Storms are not getting worse
- His analysis was for land temperatures only. The more important metric is ocean heat content and his project did not look at that.
First, I don’t know of a single scientist that does not believe temperatures have risen the last 50 years. Of course, they have. I frequently comment in my global warming presentations that atmospheric scientists are not sure exactly how much. Dr. Muller seems to agree when he says,
Second, talking about 1950 as a starting date is interesting because it was during a mid-20th century cooling period.
Take a look at this long-term graph of temperatures back to 1850:
Dr. Muller’s article starts its comparison in the middle of this period of major cooling (blue arrow) which causes it to exaggerate the rate of warming to 2010.
Third, he does not address the unforecast lack of warming since 1998. Below is the updated chart I presented in Kansas City two weeks ago during my most recent global warming talk:
The gray line is concentration of carbon dioxide which continues to rise and the red line is temperature which does not. Why? More importantly, ocean heat content (brown line, below) is also not rising:
|This is data from the new ARGO probes which were deployed specifically
to confirm ‘global warming.’ (via WattsUpWithThat)
Finally, I am not a statistician, but here is an analysis of BEST’s statistical analysis that finds their techniques wanting.
P.S. Additional comments about the BEST analysis here.