Sunday, I wrote a posting, “Dagger in the Drought?” where I predicted that significant drought relief would occur along and south of I-44 in Oklahoma and Texas by Thanksgiving.
How is the forecast coming? Here is how much rain has fallen since the forecast was made:
|NWS graphic, click to enlarge|
One inch or more of run was widespread from Laredo and Del Rio, TX into Arkansas with very heavy rains from southeast Oklahoma through the northern half of Arkansas. So far, so good with round 1 of the rain.
Here is a forecast for rainfall from now through midnight Thanksgiving evening:
|NWS GFS model from data ending 6pm Friday|
The orange areas within the red are forecast amounts between 4 and 5 inches. If you add up the amount of rain that has already fallen with what is forecast, Sunday’s original forecast still looks quite good.
But, if we add another 18 hours to the above total rainfall forecast (from now through 6pm Friday), you see even heavier rains in the drought area:
The bright orange area from just north of Dallas to the Ozarks is more than 5 inches! If this forecast is correct, it would — when combined with the rains that have already fallen — be quite significant.
Finally, there is another — large — storm system behind the one for late next week. Take a look at the total rainfall forecast from 6pm, Friday, November 25 to 6pm December 5th:
That is an additional 3 inches or more over the east halves of Texas and Oklahoma, with some areas forecast to receive 10″+ over the next 16 days.
The southern High Plains’ extremely severe drought would not be affected. Elsewhere, it would certainly improve the situation along, south and southeast of I-44 with some lesser easing over the rest of Oklahoma (except the Panhandle) and the southeast third of Kansas.
This would be a tremendous boost for the winter wheat and for pastures throughout the region.