Update on This Afternoon’s and Tonight’s Tornado Threat

First, if you want to go to a late church service or brunch/lunch with your family, you’ll be fine. Nothing happening now or through early afternoon.

AccuWeather regional radar at 10:50am CST

Here is the updated tornado threat map from the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center as of 10:30am CST:

Hatching represents F-2 or stronger tornadoes possible.
Colors = relative probabilities.

Another threat should be noted with this weather system and that is damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds:

The hatching is where winds of 70 mph or stronger may occur. The colors represent probabilities and they are quite high (on a relative basis).

Now is a good the to bring indoors any objects (lawn furniture, trampolines, etc.) that might blow about. 

OK, so how do you plan the rest of the day?  Nothing major will develop before about 2 to 3pm.

Here is an experimental radar forecast for 5pm:

NWS radar forecast, click to enlarge

There are scattered thunderstorms over northern Alabama and parts of Tennessee. Some forecasters believe they will intensify and possibly produce a tornado or two.

The more widespread action is forecast for sunset and after. Below is the 9pm forecast:

While there are still thunderstorms ahead of the main system, the line of strong storms that is expected to develop this evening from around St. Louis to west of Memphis has developed rapidly at this time. The highest tornado threat is forecast by the NWS SPC to be from 6pm until midnight.

If we go out in time one more hour, you can see a line of strong to violent thunderstorms near the Mississippi River that will sweep east during the night.

If you live in the threatened areas outlined above, I urge you to keep up on the weather starting around mid-afternoon.

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