Midnight Update

AccuWeather Regional Radar at 11:44pm CST shows the heavy snow continuing over Colorado. The town of Callan has received 14.6″ with snow still falling.

The large area of thunderstorms from Kansas to between Amarillo and Lubbock is moving northeast as new thundershowers develop between Enid and Wichita Falls. All of this is badly needed rain, with some hail.

Precipitation amounts should be substantial in the central Plains before this is all over.

Speaking of hail, there is a storm with hail just WSW of Wichita that has a history of producing large hail at 11:50pm. It will be moving into western Sedgwick Co. after midnight.

I’ve been watching this storm on dual-polarization radar and I’ll have more about that on the blog Sunday.

Still looks like very heavy snow will fall in Nebraska. See posting below.

One More Update

Lots going on that is important.

Courtesy of Dr. Ryan Maue, here is the 6pm snow cover this evening:

And, the forecast snow cover at 6am Sunday, scale at right. There is a small spot of 20″ along I-80 in south central Nebraska! Please take these forecasts into account if you are planning travel!

click to enlarge

Immediately below is the 10:03pm radar showing a thunderstorm with large hail moving ENE across northern Oklahoma toward southern Kansas.

Finally, there are at least a half dozen severe thunderstorm warnings for large hail farther southwest:

The above AccuWeather regional radar shows the extent of the thunderstorms that are moving ENE to NE.
Below, is the summary of watches and warnings (see below for color code) at 10:03pm. The amber colors in west Texas and Oklahoma are severe thunderstorm warnings.

Last update of the night — honest this time!!

Alabama and Florida Panhandle Tornado Watch

Here is the latest tornado watch on this series of storms.

It is in effect until 5pm CST.

The threat of tornadoes and strong thunderstorm winds will likely spread east and north later today. Here is the NWS Storm Prediction Center’s Outlook (in yellow) where there is an elevated or “slight” risk.

I’m on airplanes the rest of the day, so I cannot keep posting on these storms. If you are in these areas, please keep up on local sources of weather information.

This Morning’s Tornado Watch

Here is the current, and likely last, tornado watch of the day. Several tornadoes — with damage — have already been reported.

Below is a map of storm reports since late yesterday afternoon. Red = tornado reports. Blue = damaging wind reports. Green = large hail reports. There will likely be more added because of the nighttime nature of this tornado outbreak.

And, severe weather is possible over Texas tomorrow.

Update on This Afternoon’s and Tonight’s Tornado Threat

First, if you want to go to a late church service or brunch/lunch with your family, you’ll be fine. Nothing happening now or through early afternoon.

AccuWeather regional radar at 10:50am CST

Here is the updated tornado threat map from the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center as of 10:30am CST:

Hatching represents F-2 or stronger tornadoes possible.
Colors = relative probabilities.

Another threat should be noted with this weather system and that is damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds:

The hatching is where winds of 70 mph or stronger may occur. The colors represent probabilities and they are quite high (on a relative basis).

Now is a good the to bring indoors any objects (lawn furniture, trampolines, etc.) that might blow about. 

OK, so how do you plan the rest of the day?  Nothing major will develop before about 2 to 3pm.

Here is an experimental radar forecast for 5pm:

NWS radar forecast, click to enlarge

There are scattered thunderstorms over northern Alabama and parts of Tennessee. Some forecasters believe they will intensify and possibly produce a tornado or two.

The more widespread action is forecast for sunset and after. Below is the 9pm forecast:

While there are still thunderstorms ahead of the main system, the line of strong storms that is expected to develop this evening from around St. Louis to west of Memphis has developed rapidly at this time. The highest tornado threat is forecast by the NWS SPC to be from 6pm until midnight.

If we go out in time one more hour, you can see a line of strong to violent thunderstorms near the Mississippi River that will sweep east during the night.

If you live in the threatened areas outlined above, I urge you to keep up on the weather starting around mid-afternoon.

Threat of Overnight Strong Thunderstorms and Possible Tornadoes

I would rather keep the post supporting the blacklisted meteorologists at the top of the blog, but there is a potentially serious weather situation developing overnight. The outlined area below has a chance of strong thunderstorms and, maybe, tornadoes overnight.

As of 10:10pm, radar shows thunderstorms starting to develop in these areas.

Please monitor local media during the night for potential watches and warnings.

Two Areas of Strong Thunderstorms

AccuWeather Regional Radar, 2:34pm
The area of storms in West Virginia (arrows) may have damaging winds.
The area of storms in the South (purple oval) may have strong to damaging winds and large hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out in the area indicated below where there is a “slight” (actually, “elevated) risk of severe thunderstorms. 

Winter Storm Progress

Here is the current list of warnings: Blizzard = orange. Pink = winter storm. Blue are winter weather advisories (a less erious condition).

And, here is the AccuWeather regional radar. The rain is now starting to change to snow along the southern Colorado-Kansas border as the storm moves east.  Thunderstorms are continuing to bring beneficial moderate to heavy rains in the southern High Plains.

Severe thunderstorms with a tornado threat will exist later this afternoon and tonight in a broad band from Dallas to Houston.

Today’s Holiday Weather Outlook

Here is the severe weather outlook for today:

The highest tornado probabilities, which are of moderate value of 5%, is right over the the same area that suffered so much on April 27.

Delays are already being reported in Philadelphia and Houston where ground stops are in place.  The Airline Survival Guide is here.

 Thunderstorms today are likely to cause delays at the Atlanta and Cincinnati airline hubs.

Winter Storm
Today’s winter advisories (pink = winter storm warning).

The major Northeast airports will have major problems tomorrow.


Update: 7:21am… As I was posting this, a ground stop due to low clouds was put in place for Chicago. Please read the airline survival guide if you are planning to travel by air today or tomorrow, especially to Atlanta today. If you can take an earlier flight, you might save yourself a lot of trouble. 

Update on Tornado Watch

Yellow = tornado watch. Amber are severe thunderstorm warnings. Maroon counties are extensive flash flood warnings. Little Rock had record rainfall today with more expected. Finally, the green = flood watch.

Thanksgiving Travel Woes Starting Early

Gray = dense fog advisory, which includes the airports at Atlanta and New Orleans. There are “ground stops” imposed on some flights headed for ATL due to the fog and, while delays only average 15 min. at the moment, they may increase if the fog persists.

The green areas (both shades) are flood advisories. The maroon counties — including Little Rock and Intersate 40 — are flash flood warnings. 

Thanksgiving Travel Outlook

According to AccuWeather, 42,500,000 are going to travel for Thanksgiving this year. And, while the drought relief is vital, adverse weather is going to inconvenience many people and be dangerous for some. So, I want to give a comprehensive overview so you can better plan your week.

Tornadoes and Severe Thunderstorms


I’m really worried about this one. As we saw in the Carolinas last week, out-of-season tornadoes can be especially deadly. People don’t associate tornadoes with November and/or people celebrating Thanksgiving from parts of the nation where tornadoes are rare don’t know how to get the information they need then react accordingly.

The tornado and severe thunderstorm threat is geographically limited today.

The threat grows in size tomorrow (Monday):

and spreads east Tuesday.

Please view these as relative probabilities: 30% is a big deal 2 and 3 days out! These storms have the potential to cancel flights and disrupt already packed flights.

So, if you are flying in these areas, PLEASE read my Airline Survival Guide! All of the compliments I have received from fliers who have used the Guide are very gratifying…this advice works. So, put this advice to work for you. Airline hubs in Dallas, Houston, Nashville, and Cincinnati are going to be affected by these storms.

Flooding

If you are traveling by auto, flooding may be a problem both early this week and again next weekend in the area indicated below in both shades of green. There is the potential the flooding area will enlarge for next weekend over what is indicated here. All extra time and carry a road atlas in case you have to reroute. 

There is also a concern that some flooding may develop in parts of Washington and Oregon late in the week.

Snow

There is some good news: Outside of the Sierra passes — where it will be very heavy — snow will not be a big problem prior to Thanksgiving day. That will likely be a different story for the return home. I’ll post on that in a day or two. Please check back.

Safe travels and enjoy Thanksgiving with your family and friends. We have so much to be thankful for.

New Weather Photography Web Site

In the first “Greensburg” chapter of Warnings, I mention Mike Umscheid, the National Weather Service meteorologist who issued their warning for the town. That warning was credited with saving many lives.

Mike is a talented weather photographer and has launched a new web site for his photography. One of his photos of the Campo, Colorado, tornado hangs above our piano.

Click here to see some great weather photography that you might wish to give as a Christmas gift.